Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in North America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,422,299$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(2.91 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,313,404.1}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 59.9)}}\) (asimptote \(2,313,404.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $124,410$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.95 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117,809.2}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 49.4)}}\) (asimptote \(117,809.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,634,327$ on 2020-06-25

Canada⮸

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $104,463$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.53 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102,835.3}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 55.0)}}\) (asimptote \(102,835.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,567$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,446.3}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 52.4)}}\) (asimptote \(8,446.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29,027$ on 2020-06-25

Mexico⮸

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $202,951$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(4.75 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{306,457.1}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 88.9)}}\) (asimptote \(306,457.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $25,060$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(629 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{38,814.3}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 81.9)}}\) (asimptote \(38,814.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $25,529$ on 2020-06-25

Panama⮸

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $29,037$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{187,834.8}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 160.9)}}\) (asimptote \(187,834.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $564$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(46.9 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{616.4}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 74.0)}}\) (asimptote \(616.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,673$ on 2020-06-25

Dominican Republic⮸

Population $10,847,910$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $29,141$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.89 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,833.5}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 81.0)}}\) (asimptote \(36,833.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $698$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(115 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{660.6}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 47.9)}}\) (asimptote \(660.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,220$ on 2020-06-25

Honduras⮸

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,366$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(160 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{334,844.4}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 164.2)}}\) (asimptote \(334,844.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $426$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(24.8 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{718.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 86.0)}}\) (asimptote \(718.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,340$ on 2020-06-25

Guatemala⮸

Population $17,915,568$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,619$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(127 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,944.7}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 92.3)}}\) (asimptote \(26,944.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $623$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(3.33 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{807.9}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 73.0)}}\) (asimptote \(807.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,047$ on 2020-06-25

El Salvador⮸

Population $6,486,205$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,336$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(160 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,262.3}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 79.8)}}\) (asimptote \(7,262.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $126$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(3.47 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.1\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,094$ on 2020-06-25

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Cuba recovered 92%
Canada recovered 19%

Cuba⮸

Population $11,326,616$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,321$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(599 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,187.7}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 33.9)}}\) (asimptote \(2,187.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $85$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(28 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83.6}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 28.0)}}\) (asimptote \(83.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $65$ on 2020-06-25